kierthos | DVDs obsolete in 10 years? Yeah, right.

So there's this article where Bill Gates is saying that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years. One of the quotes from the article is "If you consider that nowadays we have to carry around film and music on little silver discs and stick them in the computer, it's ridiculous."

Yes, Bill, just as ridiculous as carrying around information on floppy disks, ZIP disks, CDs, or flash drives.

Now, think about it. In terms of computer technology (for home use), we've gone from from 5 1/4" disks that barely held anything, even back then, to flash drives that can go on a keychain that can hold 80 GB and are available at practically every computer store. 80 GB. That's twice the size of my hard drive.

What does this have to do with DVDs? Well, a lot, if you think about it. How many different digital storage ideas have never even left R&D in the last 20 years? I have no idea, but I'm betting a lot of them. How many media storage methods for movies and music have never even left R&D in the same time? I'm willing to bet a lot of those too. How many of the latter have actually been marketed and failed, badly? Anyone remember Betamax? (If you don't, don't feel bad.) It took a while for most people to make the transition from records to 8-tracks. And then from 8-tracks to casette tapes. And then from casettes to CDs. But you can still buy casette tape players in many stores. Sure, it will be the combo tape-CD-radio player, but the option is there.

And VCRs and tapes still sell well enough that most stores, especially major chains, haven't converted entirely to DVDs. I think Circuit City is the only one, and even then, I'm not 100% on that.

Sure, CD sales probably greatly outpace casette sales. And DVD sales probably outpace VCR tape sales. But trying to claim that DVDs will be obsolete in 10 years, Bill? Come on, man. That's just a joke.

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We have gone from floppy disks to USB drives...

They still sell 3.5 disks in stores, but they are obsolete...

They still sell VHS, but those too are obsolete...

ob·so·lete:

No longer in use: an obsolete word.
Outmoded in design, style, or construction: an obsolete locomotive.
Biology. Vestigial or imperfectly developed, especially in comparison with other individuals or related species; not clearly marked or seen; indistinct. Used of an organ or other part of an animal or plant.

Look at number two... Just because they will be around doesn't mean they won't be obsolete...

Yeah, but the article has Billy-boy saying that the computers in your house will know what you want to watch and show it to you.

Now, I don't know about you, but I've heard enough stories about the TiVos fucking up and recording either all kinds of odd shit, or not recording the right shows, or both, that I think it's going to take some time to iron that kind of thing out.

Furthermore, the article is basically a self-serving piece of advertisement copy. I mean, MS doesn't make DVDs, so of course they want them to be obsolete. It doesn't mean it will happen.

Also, we are quickly reaching the point where we can't make memory any smaller with silicon, and while some breakthroughs with other materials are occuring, it's still years away from anything other then "well, it's neat, but what can you do with it", and probably 15-20 (or more) years away from "well, it's neat, but your average family is not ready to spend $40,000 on a home entertainment system".

Plus, at Kinko's (where I work), I still see far more people using floppy disks for most things, rather then CDs or flash drives. Give it a couple more years, and yes, I think flash drives will really take off like a mad bastard, but that's computer storage media.

And yes, we have play on demand movies in most major metropolitan areas, but shockingly, a lot of people would rather spend $20 to have the movie and watch it whenever they want, rather then $4 per showing (or however much it costs). Most people are not ready to go to TV/movie format where they cannot record or store a copy of their favorite movies/tv shows for later repeated viewings. And, let's face it, it's nice to know you have it on tape, or DVD. Plus, given how much money various studios are making off of DVDs, I can't see them wanting to kill that golden goose for a long while.

So what if Flash drives are currently "computer storage"?

So were CD-ROM's...

Why not use USB-like items to hold a movie? Storage of the physical object alone would make it insanely popular (for those who have a tower or five of DVDs, a shoe-box could hold their entire collection...

Or even use them, go to a store kiosk, and pay 12 bucks, you DL the movie and extras onto a memory stick-like object... Easier by far...

It would take off, and mean FAR more profit for the movie companies, because they wouldn't have to have the CD's pressed, and packageing make...

That is, i have little doubt, what Bill is thinking...

Until you get a foolproof method of piracy prevention, I don't see that happening.

"Hey man, want a copy of Spider-Man 17? I got it on my keychain."

True. There are enough problems with movie piracy now. I mean, days before general release, you could find copies of Spider-Man 2 being shared on the KaZaa network.

It's to the point where the members of the Academy who get comp'd copies of movies to vote on are getting extra layers of protection/paranoia on them so those copies don't become distributed over the 'net.

(Oh yes, and that law in California where you can't take movie recorders into theaters.)

Possibly.

But it's pretty easy to lose those little memory stick things too. (We have this box at work that we put disks and such that are left behind by customers. The vast majority of disks in it at any time are floppy disks. Then there are some CDs. Maybe a ZIP disk or two (not too many of the locals use ZIP disks). And hardly ever a memory stick/flash drive. Why? Those things are expensive compared to a spindle of CDs.) I mean, Bill's quote was that it was silly to have to put the media in the computer, so I imagine what he would like to see is something like the Pay On Demand movie system, only on a much wider scale.

Actually the pay on demand idea isn't all bad. The biggest problem with that is that banks charge the same amount to process $5 as they do $50. This gets to be very expensive for people who are trying to do this kind of thing. The idea is actually a good one. Would work for things like music and tv shows too. So until banks bend to micro-payments and not charging so much to process small payments, we won't get this kind of thing even though its a good idea.

btw..bill's an idiot.

IMO they always predict things to happen too soon. LDs got obsolete maybe a bit too fast but DVDs are so much more practical anyway. We're only now starting to see DVD players as standard to have instead of a video player, and not many have DVD burners to use instead of video still. So no I do not believe it's as short time as 7 years. And just look at what else Bill Gates and M$ have been promising... they can't even get out less buggy software and OSs yet!

And yes I realize it's also about some pay per view thing, but we are people, and people like to [b]own[/b] things for whatever reason. I also like to own movies and TV series I like, no pay per view can replace that, nor can having it all downloaded on my computer since it's way too easy to loose it all.

DVDs obsolete in 10 years? Yeah, right.

Actually, you make his point for him...

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