The excitement builds

[kierthos]

Santorum pretty handily took Kansas, but Romney got Wyoming, Guam, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Mariana Islands.

Just... riveting.

Delegate totals so far (You need 1144 to clinch the nomination.):

Romney: 454
Santorum: 217
Gingrich: 107
Paul: 47

(and there's a few undecided delegates from states that have already had their primaries)

Romney's got a decent lead, but it's not by so much that it's a walk in the park, which means the upcoming southern state primaries are actually important for a change.

Comments

[cuddlycthulhu]

And meanwhile, in the Whitehouse, Obama sits, grinning his ass off because you just know Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul aren't going to drop out any time soon.

[kierthos]

If Gingrich does poorly enough in the upcoming southern states, he might drop out. But he's likely to place 2nd in Mississippi, and either 1st or a very close 2nd in Alabama.

Santorum will either place 3rd or a close 2nd in both states, although the polls have been off before, and he might manage 1st in either or both states. Regardless, even if he places 3rd in both states, it's still likely to be a strong 3rd. And since both states are award delegates proportionally, he'll pick up at least a few delegates.

Paul's not polling very strong in either state, so it's almost guaranteed that he'll get 4th place in both, and at most a handful of delegates.

In any event, unless Gingrich or Santorum can have convincing wins in some of the upcoming 'big delegate' states, it's not likely that they're going to pass Romney in delegate totals. As long as they stay in the race, though, they can earn enough to really turn the convention into a political bloodbath. (Well, Paul still probably won't have enough influence to do much...)

[cuddlycthulhu]

Part of me really, really hopes Santorum is able to pull it out (god that sentence is so wrong in so many ways) because I'd LOVE to see the convention with Romney have just too few delegates to put the nomination in the bag. Of course that might mean we end up with Ol' Frothy as VP.

[kierthos]

I think that if Santorum somehow managed to land the VP spot, it would pretty much be an automatic win for Obama in 2012. That being said, I don't think he can get it. Romney's from Massachusetts (or Michigan, take your pick), and Santorum is from Pennsylvania, which would put both people on the ticket from the New England(ish) area.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen. I'd just more expect a mid-western or southern VP candidate if Romney gets the nomination. (Hey, Gingrich is from Georgia.... nah.)

[thedeadcat]

I'll say this: The only Vote Republican sign I've yet seen in Maine is a sign from last year 'Vote Ron Paul'. That's it.

[herlander_refugee]

Well, if we needed any proof that Kansas was largely inhabited by crazy people...

[kierthos]

Well, that and Romney and Gingrich barely campaigned in Kansas.

[herlander_refugee]

In what may be my own show of sympathy to any GOP candidate? I could scarcely bring myself to spend time in Kansas, either.

[kierthos]

*nod* The fact that many Midwestern states aren't worth that many delegates means that a lot of them get marginalized. Hell, normally, Alabama and Mississippi wouldn't be that big a deal either, but with no clear frontrunner/favorite....

Which leads to Mitt Romney trying to act all "southern". Which is hilarious in and of itself.

[herlander_refugee]

Yeah, no joke. I have better Southern 'bona fides' than he does.