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Not surprising
Ann Romney: Fuck you all, you're not getting any more tax returns. (I'm punching it up a little.)
Here's what gets me about this issue.
They're damned if they do, and they're damned if they don't. Okay, look, your typical member of the Republican base is not going to give a monkey's brass balls about this, but Romney cannot win with just the Republican base. He needs to attract some independents. And one of the things those independents are looking at are the lack of info on his tax returns.
If he doesn't give out more years' worth of returns, the Obama campaign and various Democratic allies will say he's hiding something. Could he be hiding something? Sure. He could. But you can damn well know that someone at the IRS has since checked those returns over and over again.
If he does release more returns, and there's nothing majorly damning there, people will ask why the hell he hid them for so long. So, I have to imagine there's something there, that while not illegal (because the IRS would have a goddamned field day), would hurt his campaign.
Except.
Except he's basically been running since 2007. Yeah, he lost the nomination battle in 2007 to McCain (he came in third, just slightly behind Huckabee, in overall delegates), but you know he was thinking, even then, that he would be running again in 2012 if McCain didn't win. And as we know, McCain didn't win.
So, at the very least, he could have made his returns look nice and politically safe for at least a couple more years then he's released. Which is just further fuel on the fire.
So what could be in there? Massive donations to the Mormon Church? Ehhh... you know, I'm an atheist, but if someone wants to donate huge whacks of their own cash to a religion, fuck it, it's their money. Could it be that he's paying a really low tax rate because most of his income is through capital gains? Well, that actually wouldn't be a shock. It's assumed that's the case, in fact. Could it be that he's worth a quarter of a billion dollars? Fuck it, we already know he's out of touch with the middle class and the poor, based on his "I have friends who own NASCAR teams" statements.
Personally, I think even if you set this issue aside, he doesn't have much of a chance of becoming President in 2012. Does that mean he'll run again in 2016 if Obama gets a second term? Frankly, I doubt it. He's be 69 then, same age as Reagan when he got elected, and Reagan's the record holder. (McCain, if he had won, would have been 72, and if you don't think his age combined with Sarah Palin's lack of... well, everything... played into their defeat, you're fooling yourself.)
Here's what gets me about this issue.
They're damned if they do, and they're damned if they don't. Okay, look, your typical member of the Republican base is not going to give a monkey's brass balls about this, but Romney cannot win with just the Republican base. He needs to attract some independents. And one of the things those independents are looking at are the lack of info on his tax returns.
If he doesn't give out more years' worth of returns, the Obama campaign and various Democratic allies will say he's hiding something. Could he be hiding something? Sure. He could. But you can damn well know that someone at the IRS has since checked those returns over and over again.
If he does release more returns, and there's nothing majorly damning there, people will ask why the hell he hid them for so long. So, I have to imagine there's something there, that while not illegal (because the IRS would have a goddamned field day), would hurt his campaign.
Except.
Except he's basically been running since 2007. Yeah, he lost the nomination battle in 2007 to McCain (he came in third, just slightly behind Huckabee, in overall delegates), but you know he was thinking, even then, that he would be running again in 2012 if McCain didn't win. And as we know, McCain didn't win.
So, at the very least, he could have made his returns look nice and politically safe for at least a couple more years then he's released. Which is just further fuel on the fire.
So what could be in there? Massive donations to the Mormon Church? Ehhh... you know, I'm an atheist, but if someone wants to donate huge whacks of their own cash to a religion, fuck it, it's their money. Could it be that he's paying a really low tax rate because most of his income is through capital gains? Well, that actually wouldn't be a shock. It's assumed that's the case, in fact. Could it be that he's worth a quarter of a billion dollars? Fuck it, we already know he's out of touch with the middle class and the poor, based on his "I have friends who own NASCAR teams" statements.
Personally, I think even if you set this issue aside, he doesn't have much of a chance of becoming President in 2012. Does that mean he'll run again in 2016 if Obama gets a second term? Frankly, I doubt it. He's be 69 then, same age as Reagan when he got elected, and Reagan's the record holder. (McCain, if he had won, would have been 72, and if you don't think his age combined with Sarah Palin's lack of... well, everything... played into their defeat, you're fooling yourself.)
no subject
I read one troll in a comment section somewhere suggest that, if the Mormon church demands a 10% tithe, and Romney's been hiding a lot of his revenue in offshore accounts, then maybe he's afraid to reveal that he's hiding money from the church as well...
Could it be that he's paying a really low tax rate because most of his income is through capital gains? Well, that actually wouldn't be a shock.
But that shock could be enough to scare off 100,000 independent voters who think the guy is out of touch with the working class.
Personally, I think even if you set this issue aside, he doesn't have much of a chance of becoming President in 2012.
There's a couple of sites I've stumbled across with poll aggregators showing that if you add up the electoral votes of the states that are currently polling at least 4% in Obama's favor right now, then those states would give Obama more than the 50% of electoral votes he would need even without the states that are still undecided. Which isn't to say that Romney can't win, but he's got a much harder hill to climb to flip states in his favor.
no subject
And given the Republican party's stance on immigration reform, and Ryan's stance in particular on Medicare, Florida, which is worth almost three times the electoral votes as Wisconsin, is going to be an uphill battle. I'm not saying they couldn't win Florida. It's a swing state for a reason. But it's going to be a harder fight then it probably needs to be unless they tone down on one of those two talking points.
And let's face it, while certain states are pretty much assumed for each side, the Democrats definitely have an advantage in that California, Illinois and New York add up 104 electoral votes. You need to win the entire damn midwest to match that. (Admittedly, Romney should have a lock on most of those states anyway.)
I'm just saying that the Republicans are definitely making this harder for themselves through their own arrogance then they need to. But I'm not expecting them to correct it either.
no subject