Looking more and more like another Gingrich....

[kierthos]

Two more staffers leave Herman Cain's Iowa campaign.

Okay, sure, he's not losing them in droves like Gingrich did, but it sure as hell isn't a good sign for his campaign.

Comments

My bets

[cuddlycthulhu]

Top three contenders:
1. Romney
2. Bachmann
3. Pawlenty (as a far, far distant third)

Gingrich hadn't a hope in hell before the mass exodus of his staff and Cain's headed in the same direction, not that either of them were going to get it regardless. Huntsman's a good candidate but unknown, like Wesley Clark in 2008, And Ron Paul is Ron Paul.

What do you think?

Re: My bets

[kierthos]

Well, I think you're pretty much dead on there. The only way Pawlenty is not going to be running third behind Bachmann is if her campaign self destructs, and given her recent verbal 'oopsies', that's always possible. Unless his new staff deserts him, Gingrich will stay in for the first two or three primaries (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, as I recall), but then he'll bow out. Cain's got a bit of crazy in him, so he might stick around after Gingrich, but honestly, at best he's going to pull low-to-mid single digits in those first three states.

The only thing that could fuck the whole thing sideways is if Palin decides to jump into the race. Then I'd see Palin grabbing the #2 spot from Bachmann (why have the new Cokecrazy when you can have the original formula?). But Palin doesn't have the ability to actually win against Obama, and I'm sure there are plenty of high-ranking members of the RNC who have tried to explain that to her. (Bachmann can't beat Obama either, but at least Bachmann has actually said she's running.)

Re: My bets

[dreamshade]

My wager has been that Romney will win the nomination, and then he'll run the same boring, milquetoast campaign that John Kerry ran in 2004, with the same results.

Re: My bets

[kierthos]

Yup. And Romney's only chance at winning the election against Obama is if the economy stays in the crapper. If the economy starts picking up, Obama would have to handicap his campaign to lose the thing. But if it goes into another downturn, it's going to hurt his chances.

Re: My bets

[cuddlycthulhu]

Never underestimate the power of Democrats to fuck things up. Yes, Kerry ran a pretty mediocre campaign but the Republicans came out in droves more than Democrats or liberal undecideds. 2004 was when Bush was starting to get very unpopular, along with Cheney and the whole bunch, and when some of the details of the how and why of Iraq were coming out. We could've ousted the whole bunch then but too many Dems, I think, thought it was a done deal and didn't vote.

Re: My bets

[kierthos]

The Kerry campaign fucked up in just about every way possible, the worst case being that Kerry, the actual Vietnam war veteran and his staff handled the Swiftboating in the worst way possible, and made Bush, the country club cowboy and perennial Armed Forces fuckup look better.

Re: My bets

[cuddlycthulhu]

Please see earlier statement about underestimating the ability of Democrats to fuck up.

Re: My bets

[kierthos]

Yeah, I know. It's just that it set a new high-mark for complete and utter political campaign incompetence.

Re: My bets

[dreamshade]

Never underestimate the power of Democrats to fuck things up.

I accede that this is an entirely true statement.

Re: My bets

[cuddlycthulhu]

Pawlenty's main problem is name recognition; he's only slightly better than Huntsman. He's more out there in that he started campaigning earlier but he's still a little known governor with a spotty record for the job he did. However, I do think you are right on Gingrich and Cain; Gingrich is too unpopular with everyone but himself and Cain is too unknown and, frankly, crazy.

I'm not certain if she would. I could see her coming in and fucking things up for Bachmann sure, maybe steal half of the votes that would've gone to Bachmann and slide her and Palin down into third with Pawlenty, but I don't see Palin really screwing things up. In the end of the day, it's going to be Romney because A) he's not crazy and B) he's not a woman (which is not a statement of how I judge female candidates but a judgment on how I think Republicans will judge their candidates).