Predictions for the Iowa caucus tomorrow

[kierthos]

Democrats: The only candidates who have significant support in Iowa are Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. (Richardson has 10% in the latest polls, but that is not enough to get to the first viability mark in Iowa's caucus.) Unfortunately for Clinton, she is polling first among Democratic candidates in the "coveted" field of "Would never vote for".

Not so surprising win - Barack Obama

Republicans: The only two candidates who have good poll numbers here are Romney and Huckabee. Guiliani's and Thompson's numbers aren't close enough (-10% or more from Romney and Huckabee), and Guiliani is in the same boat in his party as Clinton is in hers. More Iowans say they would never vote for him (Guiliani) then any other candidate.

Not so surprising win - Mike Huckabee

Fallout: It may not happen after Iowa, but you can bet that after New Hampshire and South Carolina, a couple candidates from each side will throw in the towel. Expect to see Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter drop out on the Republican side, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich from the Democrats pack up and leave.

Edit: My bad. Tancredo already dropped out. In that case, I still see Duncan Hunter folding up his campaign, but he won't be joined by anyone else. Ron Paul has enough cash to see him through losing another couple of primaries after this, and Fred Thompson probably won't even realize that the caucus happened until a week afterwards.

Comments

Obama in IOWA

[(Anonymous)]

lets us not idolize clntons and put a spin so people focus on clebrity status to vote rather than the real concerns of this nation and it's children.

Clinton is an introvert, smart and shrewd. there is no real charisma or passion in her speech. I am not sure of her sticking with her words. She will definetly do better job than all the republican nominees put to gether.

One person stands out among these politicians..that is Obama, his experience comes from before he became a politician. He know the pulse of the youth, he knows the dangers of future that behold our children, he knows outside our borders as he spent 4+ years growing up in a third world country, he understands the pulse of foreigners, immigrants., he expereinced conflict of belief about faith and religion. All this in his personal life before becoming a politician. well he experienced lot more subject as a politician..consitution, war, education in schools, gloalization etc.,

if we choose any other over Obama, we surely will

Re: Obama in IOWA

[kierthos.livejournal.com]

And you are?

And where the fuck in my post do I idolize Clinton? I think she's going to lose Iowa.

Re: Obama in IOWA

[(Anonymous)]

HE IS THE GREATEST AND HONEST AND WILL BRING OUR NATION TOGETHER/HE HAS THAT SPECIAL TALENT AND HE IS NOT SELF-SERVING.

Re: Obama in IOWA

[kierthos.livejournal.com]

You're making me rethink my policy of allowing anonymous posters.