So, I was wrong.
Jan. 9th, 2008 09:28 amClinton managed to squeak out a win in New Hampshire. Now, if she had come in second place, it wouldn't have been the end of her campaign, but it would have hurt. Obama getting a close second doesn't kill his campaign either, but goddamn, going by the media, you'd think Clinton's campaign was on life support after Iowa.
McCain, however, I was right about. And the media is touting this as bringing him back fully into the game. *shrug* Maybe. I think the important thing here, though, is not the renewed life to McCain's campaign, but the continued and necessary shitting on of Guiliani's campaign.
Now, the next "big" state is South Carolina, because even though voting starts today in Illinois (I'm guessing for absentee ballots), the Illinois primaries aren't until Feb. 5th, and Michigan's primaries on Jan. 15th got the state bitch-slapped by the Democratic and Republican parties. (Half the Republican delegates were stripped and ALL of the Democratic ones were stripped. So even though Obama and Edwards had their names removed from the ballot, thereby making it a shoo-in for Clinton in that state... it will mean fuck-all until the national convention when they may get their delegates back.)
Now, the South Carolina primaries aren't on the same day. Go figure. The Republican one is Jan. 19th, and the Democratic one is on the 26th. Based on recent polls, Huckabee should win South Carolina, with McCain second and Romney third. (On a trivia note, since 1980, every Republican candidate who has won South Carolina has gotten the nomination.) On the Democratic side, Obama has apparently gotten a double-digit lead on Clinton (although this poll was before New Hampshire...), but as I've said several times, there are a lot of voters down here who don't like Hillary. Plus, Edwards is from North Carolina so he's going to get a little boost from that.
Here's where it gets fun, though. There is no party based registration for the primaries in this state. So, yeah, a lifelong Republican could vote in the Democratic primary (but you can only vote in one or the other, not both), so there's a potential for some stink-voting. I don't think that's going to play a big part in the primaries, though...
Tentative picks: Republican: Huckabee. Democrat: Obama.
McCain, however, I was right about. And the media is touting this as bringing him back fully into the game. *shrug* Maybe. I think the important thing here, though, is not the renewed life to McCain's campaign, but the continued and necessary shitting on of Guiliani's campaign.
Now, the next "big" state is South Carolina, because even though voting starts today in Illinois (I'm guessing for absentee ballots), the Illinois primaries aren't until Feb. 5th, and Michigan's primaries on Jan. 15th got the state bitch-slapped by the Democratic and Republican parties. (Half the Republican delegates were stripped and ALL of the Democratic ones were stripped. So even though Obama and Edwards had their names removed from the ballot, thereby making it a shoo-in for Clinton in that state... it will mean fuck-all until the national convention when they may get their delegates back.)
Now, the South Carolina primaries aren't on the same day. Go figure. The Republican one is Jan. 19th, and the Democratic one is on the 26th. Based on recent polls, Huckabee should win South Carolina, with McCain second and Romney third. (On a trivia note, since 1980, every Republican candidate who has won South Carolina has gotten the nomination.) On the Democratic side, Obama has apparently gotten a double-digit lead on Clinton (although this poll was before New Hampshire...), but as I've said several times, there are a lot of voters down here who don't like Hillary. Plus, Edwards is from North Carolina so he's going to get a little boost from that.
Here's where it gets fun, though. There is no party based registration for the primaries in this state. So, yeah, a lifelong Republican could vote in the Democratic primary (but you can only vote in one or the other, not both), so there's a potential for some stink-voting. I don't think that's going to play a big part in the primaries, though...
Tentative picks: Republican: Huckabee. Democrat: Obama.