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Okay, what the fuck
Jan. 9th, 2009 02:51 amHere's my take on the whole Israeli/Gaza thing.
Both (all?) sides are deluding themselves.
If Israel's government thinks that this will change anything, they're... well, they're wrong. Sure, short-term, Hamas might be a little weaker in terms of what they can do, but right now, they're getting a lot of support from the Arab world. (Okay, not necessarily material support, but emotional support.) Unless Israel plans on taking back the Gaza strip permanently (which I can't see happening), when they leave, Hamas will just start building back up. They might have lost some people to the air strikes and ground assault, but you can bet that they won't have a problem recruiting after all the civilian (by which I mean non-Hamas) deaths on the Palestinian side.
Hamas, however, is deluding themselves if they think this is going to substantially change things for them. I mean, unless they're wiped out completely (and how do you do that without wiping out a lot of civilians?), they're pretty much going to tout this as a victory. As in, "The mighty IDF couldn't beat us and they attacked us for weeks." kind of thing. But they're almost certainly going to be treated like a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Israel (and other countries) in the aftermath of this, and while they might get some additional recruits and backing (from Iran, among others), unless they start acting like a real government for the Gaza strip, and you know, stop lobbing rockets at Israel, all this shit will just start up again in another six months, or a year, or two years.
The solution? Fuck if I know. I don't think there is an easy answer to this one.
Both (all?) sides are deluding themselves.
If Israel's government thinks that this will change anything, they're... well, they're wrong. Sure, short-term, Hamas might be a little weaker in terms of what they can do, but right now, they're getting a lot of support from the Arab world. (Okay, not necessarily material support, but emotional support.) Unless Israel plans on taking back the Gaza strip permanently (which I can't see happening), when they leave, Hamas will just start building back up. They might have lost some people to the air strikes and ground assault, but you can bet that they won't have a problem recruiting after all the civilian (by which I mean non-Hamas) deaths on the Palestinian side.
Hamas, however, is deluding themselves if they think this is going to substantially change things for them. I mean, unless they're wiped out completely (and how do you do that without wiping out a lot of civilians?), they're pretty much going to tout this as a victory. As in, "The mighty IDF couldn't beat us and they attacked us for weeks." kind of thing. But they're almost certainly going to be treated like a terrorist organization by the U.S. and Israel (and other countries) in the aftermath of this, and while they might get some additional recruits and backing (from Iran, among others), unless they start acting like a real government for the Gaza strip, and you know, stop lobbing rockets at Israel, all this shit will just start up again in another six months, or a year, or two years.
The solution? Fuck if I know. I don't think there is an easy answer to this one.