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Predictions for the Iowa caucus tomorrow
Jan. 2nd, 2008 07:05 amDemocrats: The only candidates who have significant support in Iowa are Clinton, Obama, and Edwards. (Richardson has 10% in the latest polls, but that is not enough to get to the first viability mark in Iowa's caucus.) Unfortunately for Clinton, she is polling first among Democratic candidates in the "coveted" field of "Would never vote for".
Not so surprising win - Barack Obama
Republicans: The only two candidates who have good poll numbers here are Romney and Huckabee. Guiliani's and Thompson's numbers aren't close enough (-10% or more from Romney and Huckabee), and Guiliani is in the same boat in his party as Clinton is in hers. More Iowans say they would never vote for him (Guiliani) then any other candidate.
Not so surprising win - Mike Huckabee
Fallout: It may not happen after Iowa, but you can bet that after New Hampshire and South Carolina, a couple candidates from each side will throw in the towel. Expect to see Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter drop out on the Republican side, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich from the Democrats pack up and leave.
Edit: My bad. Tancredo already dropped out. In that case, I still see Duncan Hunter folding up his campaign, but he won't be joined by anyone else. Ron Paul has enough cash to see him through losing another couple of primaries after this, and Fred Thompson probably won't even realize that the caucus happened until a week afterwards.
Not so surprising win - Barack Obama
Republicans: The only two candidates who have good poll numbers here are Romney and Huckabee. Guiliani's and Thompson's numbers aren't close enough (-10% or more from Romney and Huckabee), and Guiliani is in the same boat in his party as Clinton is in hers. More Iowans say they would never vote for him (Guiliani) then any other candidate.
Not so surprising win - Mike Huckabee
Fallout: It may not happen after Iowa, but you can bet that after New Hampshire and South Carolina, a couple candidates from each side will throw in the towel. Expect to see Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter drop out on the Republican side, and Chris Dodd and Dennis Kucinich from the Democrats pack up and leave.
Edit: My bad. Tancredo already dropped out. In that case, I still see Duncan Hunter folding up his campaign, but he won't be joined by anyone else. Ron Paul has enough cash to see him through losing another couple of primaries after this, and Fred Thompson probably won't even realize that the caucus happened until a week afterwards.